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· The market is anticipating a sharp slowdown in the US. While we are less pessimistic, we remain vigilant given ongoing political uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures.· As a result, we continue to believe that risky assets could face increased volatility. · We are keeping our fund portfolio unchanged. · In equities, we are invested in the Carmignac Portfolio Investissement and Carmignac Portfolio Grandchildren funds. · In bonds, we are invested in the Carmignac Portfolio Credit and Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond strategies. · Finally, in our alternative allocation, we hold positions in the Carmignac Absolute Return Europe and Carmignac Portfolio Merger Arbitrage Plus funds.
Equity Strategies | 38.7 % |
Fixed Income Strategies | 38.6 % |
Alternative strategies | 20.9 % |
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Derivatives Operations | 1.8 % |
The strategy offers a balanced and diversified exposure to markets, benefiting from Carmignac's expertise in the equity, bond and alternative asset classes.”
Market environment
• April 2025 saw significant volatility in financial markets, with a sharp correction quickly followed by an equally strong rebound, resulting in only modest net changes by month-end.• The month began with Donald Trump announcing higher tariffs than markets had expected. Dubbed “Freedom Day” by the US president, this move reignited fears of a US recession and triggered a crisis of confidence, leading investors to exit riskier assets and US holdings such as the dollar and Treasury bonds. • In response to the market downturn, Trump suspended most tariff measures for 90 days (except for those targeting China), which allowed equity markets to recover. • European and emerging market equities outperformed US markets, while interest rates experienced pronounced swings. • In the US, the yield curve steepened as markets began to price in four Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end. • Credit spreads widened significantly after the tariff announcement but narrowed again as market conditions improved. • Gold was the standout performer, reaching record highs, while oil prices dropped sharply on concerns about an economic slowdown. • On the macroeconomic front, uncertainty over trade barriers began to weigh on US leading indicators, particularly consumer sentiment, raising fears of stagflation in the coming months.